Is scouting an art or science?

When describing scouting, it is common to hear individuals refer to the process as an art versus a science. That’s interesting. The consequences or rewards determined from the conclusions drawn through the scouting process are often franchise altering. An over-evaluation of a prospect can set a franchise back for years. It can lead to subsequent reactionary transactions attempting to correct a trajectory that executives become fearful of. One bad move can lead to another. That is a lot of trust to place on an art.

The opposite is true for an accurate evaluation. A franchise can identify the supposed diamond in the rough that elevates their team and creates a multitude of avenues for sustainable success. A great evaluator or team of evaluators can maximize the value of each roster spot within the confines of the ever-changing salary cap. So I pose the question: should the future of a franchise be placed in the hands of artists or scientists?

Anyone who knows me, knows that I am a curious individual who asks questions and seeks knowledge. I am a consumer of science and archaeology. In an alternative universe, I hope other versions of myself are pursuing experiments in quantum physics or investigating mysteries at ancient archaeological sites searching to uncover the truths of our ancestors. Hang in there. I promise this will lead back to basketball. 

Over the course of recent humanity, the scientific process has led to great discoveries, but also, corrected mistaken theories. The classic examples revolve around Earth’s relationship to the sun and other planets within our solar system or Darwin’s Theory of Evolution. These revolutionary theories were considered radical and quickly refuted. So how did these theories transition from speculation to acceptance? It was the scientific process of questioning, hypothesizing, investigating, experimenting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions. 

Only with ample evidence, can you draw a conclusion. The strength of your conclusion or confidence in your analysis may vary based on the quality and quantity of the evidence that you have evaluated. But an evaluator must remain unbiased. That is the challenge. Too often, we are in search of confirmatory evidence. A search for evidence to support a hypothesis can lead an individual astray. It doesn’t matter whether this is done through quantitative data, statistics, or qualitative data, observations. 

If the process is completed incorrectly, the resulting interpretations and conclusions lose value. The foundational rule to test a theory is to reject your null hypothesis. You should assume that your hypothesis is incorrect and after careful experimentation, you determine whether you should reject or accept this notion. 

The search for confirmatory evidence to support hypotheses occurs in science and archaeology. And it can transpire in the world of basketball scouting. A thorough researcher, or scout, should not search for evidence to support their synopsis, but should collect and analyze all data points absent of bias to project a forecast. This is an area I continue to refine as an evaluator. I strive to eliminate my biases and draw conclusions based on the evidence I have assessed. 

While scouting, I use a combination of statistics and observations. In my opinion, one of these elements in isolation will not provide an accurate evaluation. Oversimplification of a statistical value or reliance on strict empirical observation is a dangerous method to form a decision. Limiting the evidence will limit the interpretation that can be drawn from it. 

So, where does this leave us? Statistics alone will not provide a thorough evaluation so observation by a trained individual is required. If statistics is considered science and observation is considered art, then I came up with my conclusion. Scouting requires an artist, someone who understands the intricacies of the game, that utilizes the scientific method. That method needs to be rigorous, accountable, unbiased, and adaptable to fit within the ever changing basketball landscape. That is my process and what will make me an asset to a team.